Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) Update No. 14





Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday, 29 December 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 29 December 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) has rapidly accelerated westward after crossing Samar Island and is now in the vicinity of Southern Masbate.  Its thick, pulsating and elongated rainbands continues to impact much of Bicol Region, Northern Panay, MiMaRoPa, and CaLaBaRZon including Metropolitan Manila. These areas will experience moderate to heavy, or at times torrential rainfall with gale-force winds (of up to 75 kph) which could trigger flash floods, mudslides, and landslides.

24-hr Outlook: TD 35W (USMAN) is forecast to move west to west-southwestward across the Jintotolo Channel at a decreased forward speed of 26 kph, and will traverse the northwestern part of Panay (Aklan-Antique) late this afternoon, passing over or very close to Boracay.  It will then be crossing the northern part of Sulu Sea by early tomorrow morning (Dec 30), passing over Linapacan Island (Northern Palawan) around sunrise, before emerging over the West Philippine Sea. 

This depression will continue to enhance the Strong Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and could bring cooler and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and some thunderstorms across Luzon, becoming more frequent along the northern and eastern sections particularly Bicol and CaLaBaRZon including Mindoro Oriental.

Where is 35W (USMAN)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 29…0300 GMT. The center was located along the shores of Southern Masbate (just west of the town of Placer, Masbate) [near 11.9°N 123.8°E], about 58 km south-southeast of Masbate City, Masbate or 203 km east of Boracay, Aklan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 33 kph, towards Northwestern Aklan & Northern Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Over Northwestern Aklan, between 5 to 6 PM local time today – with High Strike Probability of 65-85%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate, Heavy to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Bicol Region, Northern Panay, MiMaRoPa, CaLaBaRZon, & Metropolitan Manila – Today. 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
SATURDAY EVENING: Exits the Northernmost Coastline of Aklan, or over the Northernmost part of Sulu Sea…about 30 km SW of Boracay, Aklan [8PM Dec 29: 11.8°N 121.7°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea, after passing Linapacan Island on a WSW direction…about 157 km WSW of Coron, Palawan [8AM Dec 30: 11.4°N 118.9°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY EVENING: Continues to move WSW-ward across the West Philippine Sea, and becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it approaches the Kalayaan Island Group…about 284 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 30: 10.7°N 116.3°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

MONDAY MORNING: Exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while moving more SW-ward across the Kalayaan Island Group…about 503 km W of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 31: 9.8°N 114.2°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 515 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat December 29, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.9°N Lat 123.8°E Lon
Distance 1: 108 km WSW of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 121 km NNE of Sagay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 3: 138 km S of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 200 km SSE of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 420 km SE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.4°N 118.9°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 9.8°N 114.2°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 8.1°N 111.5°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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