Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) Update No. 13

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (USMAN) UPDATE NO. 13

Issued at: 6:50 AM PhT (22:50 GMT) Saturday, 29 December 2018
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday, 29 December 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) starts to make landfall over Eastern Samar as it turns west-northwestward with increased forward speed…begins interacting with the strong surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan).  Its thick and elongated rainbands continues to impact much of Bicol Region and Northern Visayas, and has  reached the Southern Tagalog Provinces including Metropolitan Manila. These areas will experience moderate to heavy, or at times torrential rainfall with gale-force winds (of up to 70 kph) which could trigger flash floods, mudslides, and landslide in threat zones.

24-hr Outlook: TD 35W (USMAN) is forecast to accelerate rapidly and turn westward at 27 kph, traversing Samar Island and the Visayan Sea this morning.  It will be cutting across Northern Panay this afternoon, and shall emerge  over the northern part of Sulu Sea, just west of Pamalican Island by early Sunday morning (Dec 30). 

This depression will continue to enhance the Strong Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and could bring cooler and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and some thunderstorms across Luzon, becoming more frequent along the northern and eastern sections particularly Bicol and CaLaBaRZon including Mindoro Oriental.

Where is 35W (USMAN)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 29…2100 GMT. The center was located just along the shores of Eastern Samar (very close to the towns of Sulat and San Julian) [near 11.8°N 125.6°E), about 28 km northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar or 78 km east of Catbalogan City, Samar.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 20 kph, towards Samar-Northern Panay Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Along the Eastern Coast of Eastern Samar, between 6 to 7 AM local time today – with High Strike Probability of 85-100%.

::  Along the Northern Coast of Panay Island (Capiz-Aklan), between 3 to 5 PM local time today – with Medium Strike Probability of 50-65%.

What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern & Northern Visayas, Bicol Region, Southern Quezon, Romblon, Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, CALABARZON & NCR  – Today. 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching the Northern coastline of Panay as it accelerates Westward with no change in strength…about 63 km ENE of Roxas City, Capiz [2PM Dec 29: 11.7°N 123.3°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the Northern part of Sulu Sea, just departing Pamalican and Amanpulo Islands on a WSW direction towards Northern Palawan…about 98 km SSE of Coron, Palawan [2AM Dec 30: 11.2°N 120.4°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea, after crossing Northern Palawan, becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) while maintaining its WSW direction…about 138 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 30: 10.6°N 117.7°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while moving WSW-ward towards the Kalayaan Island Group…about 404 km W of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 31: 9.8°N 115.1°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens further while moving SW-ward across the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea…about 760 km WSW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Jan 01: 8.2°N 112.1°E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 695 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat December 29, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.8°N Lat 125.6°E Lon
Distance 1: 86 km N of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 114 km ESE of Calbayog City, Western Samar
Distance 3: 136 km NE of Ormoc City, Leyte
Distance 4: 225 km ESE of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 5: 580 km ESE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.2°N 120.4°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 9.8°N 115.1°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 8.2°N 112.1°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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TCWS Graphics by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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