Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) Update No. 12

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (USMAN) UPDATE NO. 12

Issued at: 12:30 AM PhT (16:30 GMT) Saturday, 29 December 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 29 December 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) nearing landfall as it approaches the Southeastern Coast of Eastern Samar while resuming a westward track over the past 6 hours.  Its thick rainbands continues to impact much of Bicol Region, covering a wide swath of the Visayas, and also reaching the Northern shores of Mindanao as the result. These areas will experience moderate to heavy, or at times torrential rainfall which could spawn flash flood, mudslide, and landslide in threat zones.

24-hr Outlook: TD 35W (USMAN) is forecast to accelerate, just about leaving Western Panay land mass closest to Bugasong town in Antique, Saturday evening (Dec 29), hurtling towards Cuyo Islands off the Sulu Sea on a Westward track @ 23 kph. 

This depression will continue to enhance the Strong Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and could bring cooler and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and some thunderstorms across Luzon, becoming more frequent along the northern and eastern sections particularly Bicol and Quezon Provinces.

Where is 35W (USMAN)? As of 11:00 PM PhT tonight, December 28…1500 GMT. The center was located over the Southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 11.1°N 126.4°E), about 74 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 158 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 20 kph, towards the Southeastern part of Eastern Samar.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Along the Southeastern Coast of Eastern Samar, between 1 to 3 AM local time Saturday (Dec 29) – with High Strike Probability of 70-85%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern & Northern Visayas, Bicol Region, Southern Quezon, Romblon, Marinduque,Oriental Mindoro, CALABARZON & NCR  – Today. 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
 SATURDAY MORNING: Departing the Northwestern shores Leyte, turns westward as it maintains its strength…about 38 km NW of Ormoc City, Leyte [8AM Dec 29: 11.3°N 124.4°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SATURDAY EVENING: Intensifies slightly into a Tropical Storm (TS) while just about leaving the Panay land mass, specifically along the Western Coast of Bugasong, Antique – racing towards the Cuyo Islands, with a slight WSW-ward trajectory…about 71 km W of Passi City, Iloilo [8PM Dec 29: 11.1°N 122.0°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY MORNING: Making landfall yet again over Northern Palawan, approaching very close to El Nido on a WSW track…about 121 km NE of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 30: 10.8°N 119.5°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY EVENING: Emerging over the West Philippine Sea or just along the offshore areas of Central Palawan, still moving WSW-ward…about 208 km W of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 30: 10.2°N 116.9°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

MONDAY EVENING: Free-falling well outside of the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while it intensifies gradually…moving WSW-ward across the South China Sea…about 627 km WSW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 31: 8.1°N 113.4°E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 675 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Fri December 28, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.1°N Lat 126.4°E Lon
Distance 1: 224 km N of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 2: 239 km NNE of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 3: 158 km E of Tacloban City, Leyte
Distance 4: 74 km E of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 5: 696 km ESE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.1°N 122.0°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.2°N 116.9°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 8.1°N 113.4°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Adonis S. Manzan for WeatherPhilippines

usman18_12_signals
TCWS Graphics by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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