Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) Update No. 11

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (USMAN) UPDATE NO. 11

Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Friday, 28 December 2018
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Saturday, 29 December 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) has gained a little bit of strength as it started once again to move towards the west-northwest during the past 6 hours, in the general direction of Eastern Visayas.  Its thick rainbands continues to move ahead of the depression, spreading across the  Visayas, Bicol Region, Southern Quezon and Northeastern Mindanao. Moderate to heavy to at times torrential rainfall which could generate flash floods, mudslides, and landslides will be expected along these areas.

24-hr Outlook: TD 35W (USMAN) is forecast to make landfall along the southeastern portion of Eastern Samar early tomorrow morning (Dec 29), passing over or close to the Town of Guiuan. It will then move across the Northernmost part of Leyte, passing very close to Tacloban City by mid-morning tomorrow, and will emerge over the Visayan Sea around noontime as it passes along the coastline of Daanbantayan, Cebu and Bantayan Island. By tomorrow afternoon, it will be in the vicinity of Northeastern part of Iloilo, and will therefore maintain its strength, as it turn towards the west at an increased forward speed of 22 km/hr.

This depression will continue to enhance the Strong Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and could bring cooler and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and some thunderstorms across Luzon, becoming more frequent along the northern and eastern sections particularly Bicol and Quezon Provinces.

Where is 35W (USMAN)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 28…0900 GMT. The center was located over the Southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 11.0°N 127.5°E), about 194 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 278 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 25 kph, towards the Southeastern part of Eastern Samar.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Along the Southeastern Coast of Eastern Samar, between 3 to 5 AM local time Saturday (Dec 29) – with Medium Strike Probability of 50-65%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern & Northern Visayas, Bicol Region, Southern Quezon, Romblon, Marinduque – Today. 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the SE Coast of Eastern Samar, turns westward as it maintains its strength…about 35 km NNE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2AM Dec 29: 11.3°N 125.9°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Just along the Coast of Quiniluban Island, as it prepares to traverse Northeastern Iloilo, starts to move barely WSW-ward…about 49 km NNE of Victorias City, Negros Occidental [2PM Dec 29: 11.3°N 123.2°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) while traversing the northern part of Sulu Sea, passing very close to Cuyo Island on a WSW track…about 157 km SSE of Coron, Palawan [2AM Dec 30: 10.7°N 120.6°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Emerging over the West Philippine Sea or just along the offshore areas of Central Palawan, still moving WSW-ward…about 50 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 30: 10.2°N 118.4°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Outside of the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it intensifies further while moving WSW-ward across the South China Sea…about 504 km WSW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 31: 9.0°N 114.3°E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 510 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri December 28, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.0°N Lat 127.5°E Lon
Distance 1: 257 km NE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 2: 300 km NE of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 3: 305 km ENE of Maasin City, Southern Leyte
Distance 4: 314 km E of Ormoc City, Leyte
Distance 5: 803 km ESE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.3°N 123.2°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.2°N 118.4°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 9.0°N 114.3°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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TCWS Graphics by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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