Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) Update No. 10

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (USMAN) UPDATE NO. 10

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday, 28 December 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 28 December 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) has remained quasi-stationary over the Philippine Sea with no significant change in strength during the past 6 hours.  Its pulsating rainbands continues to spread across the eastern sections of Visayas, Bicol Region and Northeastern Mindanao. Moderate to heavy to at times torrential rainfall which could generate flash floods, mudslides, and landslides will be expected along these areas.

24-hr Outlook: TD 35W (USMAN) is forecast to make landfall along the southeastern part of Eastern Samar early tomorrow morning (Dec 29), passing over or very close to the Town of Guiuan. It will then move across the Northern part of Leyte and will emerge over the Visayan Sea, late tomorrow morning. It will therefore maintain its strength, with a turn  towards the west at an increased forward speed of 24 km/hr.

This depression will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and could bring cooler and windy conditions with occasional rain showers  across Luzon, becoming more frequent along the eastern sections particularly Bicol and Quezon Provinces.

Where is 35W (USMAN)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 28…0300 GMT. The center was located over the Southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 10.5°N 128.8°E), about 342 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 427 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Quasi-Stationary, along the Southwestern Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Along the Southeastern Coast of Eastern Samar, between 1 to 3 AM local time Saturday (Dec 29) – with Medium Strike Probability of 50-65%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region, Dinagat & Siargao – Today. 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
FRIDAY EVENING: Approaching the SE Coast of Eastern Samar, turns westward…about 65 km ESE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [8PM Dec 28: 10.9°N 126.3°E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SATURDAY MORNING: Just along the NW Coast of Leyte (near Palompon), turns westward while maintaining its strength…about 35 km W of Ormoc City, Leyte [8AM Dec 29: 11.0°N 124.3°E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SATURDAY EVENING: Emerging along the SW Coast of Antique, after crossing the South-Central part of Panay Island (Iloilo Province)…about 86 km WNW of Iloilo City, Iloilo [8PM Dec 29: 10.9°N 121.8°E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY MORNING: In the vicinity of Northern Palawan (near Dumaran, Palawan), turns WSW-ward and strengthens slightly…about 114 km NE of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 30: 10.6°N 119.6°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

MONDAY MORNING: Over the West Philippine Sea as it approaches the Kalayaan Island Group. About to exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while becoming a Tropical Storm (TS)…about 240 km W of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 31: 10.1°N 116.6°E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 685 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri December 28, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.5°N Lat 128.8°E Lon
Distance 1: 329 km ENE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 2: 369 km ENE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte
Distance 3: 388 km ESE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar
Distance 4: 435 km ENE of Maasin City, Southern Leyte
Distance 5: 954 km ESE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.0°N 124.3°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.6°N 119.6°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.1°N 116.6°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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TCWS Graphics by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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