Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) Update No. 09

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (USMAN) UPDATE NO. 09

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 28 December 2018
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday, 28 December 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) still disorganized as it moves west-northwestward across the Philippine Sea during the past 6 hours.  Its rainbands continues to spread across the eastern sections of Visayas and Bicol Region, while a newly-formed bands can be seen along the Siargao-Dinagat Islands.

24-hr Outlook: TD 35W (USMAN) is forecast to make landfall along the southeastern part of Eastern Samar tonight, passing between Balangkayan-Llorente Area.  It will then move across the Southern part of Samar and Biliran Island around midnight, and shall emerge over the Visayan Sea, very near the southeastern tip of Masbate by early tomorrow morning, Saturday (Dec 29). It will therefore maintain its strength, with a turn  towards the west at an increased forward speed of 21 km/hr.

This depression will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and could bring cooler and windy conditions with occasional rain showers  across Luzon, becoming more frequent along the eastern sections particularly Bicol and Quezon Provinces.

Where is 35W (USMAN)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 28…2100 GMT. The center was located over the Southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 10.9°N 128.0°E), about 249 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 330 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 15 kph, towards the Southeastern Coast of Eastern Samar.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Along the Southeastern Coast of Eastern Samar, between 6 to 8 PM local time Tonight – with High Strike Probability of 75-90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Visayas, Bicol Region, Dinagat & Siargao – Today. 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching the SE Coast of Eastern Samar…about 79 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2PM Dec 28: 11.3°N 126.4°E @ 45kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the Southeastern Coast of Masbate (over the Visayan Sea), turns westward while intensifying slightly…about 83 km SW of Calbayog City, Samar [2AM Dec 29: 11.6°N 124.0°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Emerging along the west coast of Antique, after crossing the northern coastal areas of Panay Island…about 113 km W of Roxas City, Capiz [2PM Dec 29: 11.6°N 121.7°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the Northern Tip of Palawan, near the coast of Lalutaya Island as it becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) while moving on WSW track…about 135 km SW of Coron, Palawan [2AM Dec 30: 11.3°N 119.2°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the West Philippine Sea as it approaches the Kalayaan Island Group. About to exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while maintaining its strength…about 305 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 31: 10.7°N 116.1°E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 610 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri December 28, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.9°N Lat 128.0°E Lon
Distance 1: 334 km NE of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 2: 291 km ESE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar
Distance 3: 345 km E of Baybay City, Leyte
Distance 4: 355 km ENE of Maasin City, Southern Leyte
Distance 5: 856 km ESE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.6°N 124.0°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.3°N 119.2°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.7°N 116.1°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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TCWS Graphics by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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