Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) Update No. 08

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (USMAN) UPDATE NO. 08

Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Friday, 28 December 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 28 December 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) has drifted West-northwestward apparently, with no significant change in strength off the Philippine Sea during the past 6 hours.  Its rainbands remains elongated to the northwest, already affecting the eastern sections of Visayas and Bicol Region.

24-hr Outlook: TD 35W (USMAN) is forecast to intensify slowly and accelerate  westward at a forward speed of 21 km/hr.  It will approach Matarinao Bay, and make landfall closest to Hernani town, in the Southeastern part of Samar Island tomorrow afternoon (Dec 28).

This depression will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and could bring cooler and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern and Eastern Luzon incl. Bicol and Quezon Provinces.

Where is 35W (USMAN)? As of 11:00 PM PhT tonight, December 27…1500 GMT. The center was located over the Southernmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 10.7°N 128.8°E), about 338 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 423 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 15 kph, towards the Southeastern Coast of Eastern Samar.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Along the Southeastern Coast of Eastern Samar, between 5 to 7 PM local time tomorrow, Friday (Dec 28) – with High Strike Probability of 70-85%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern Visayas – already underway.
>> Rest of Visayas and Bicol Region – beginning Today, Friday (Dec 28). 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
FRIDAY EVENING: Over land (just east of San Miguel town, in Leyte)…about 18 km north-northwest of Tacloban City, Leyte [8PM Dec 28: 11.4°N 124.9°E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SATURDAY MORNING: Over land (just south of Makato, Aklan)…about 48 km west of Roxas City, Capiz [8AM Dec 29: 11.5°N 122.3°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SATURDAY EVENING: Passing closest to Northern Palawan, nearest to Linapacan Islands, while maintaining a WSW track…about 83 km south-southwest of Coron, Palawan [8PM Dec 29: 11.4°N 119.8°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY EVENING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea while intensifying slightly and accelerating WSW-ward. About to exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 261 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 30: 10.9°N 116.6°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 705 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Thu December 27, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.7°N Lat 128.8°E Lon
Distance 1: 375 km ENE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte
Distance 2: 391 km NE of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 3: 338 km E of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 4: 437 km E of Maasin City, Southern Leyte
Distance 5: 994 km ESE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.4°N 124.9°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.4°N 119.8°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.9°N 116.6°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Adonis S. Manzan for WeatherPhilippines
usman18_07_signalsTCWS Graphics by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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