Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) Update No. 07





Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Thursday, 27 December 2018
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Friday, 28 December 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) has been relocated slightly to the east with no change in strength, as it continues its slow, west-northwest drift across the Philippine Sea during the past 6 hours.  Its rainbands remains elongated to the northwest, affecting the eastern sections of Visayas and Bicol Region.

24-hr Outlook: TD 35W (USMAN) is forecast to intensify slowly and accelerate slightly west-northwestward at a forward speed of 18 km/hr.  It will approach the Southeastern Coast of Samar Island tomorrow afternoon (Dec 28), and is expected to make landfall over or very close to Guiuan, Eastern Samar by early tomorrow evening.

This depression will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and could bring cooler and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern and Eastern Luzon incl. Bicol and Quezon Provinces starting tonight.

Where is 35W (USMAN)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 27…0900 GMT. The center was located over the Southernmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 10.5°N 129.6°E), about 428 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 513 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 10 kph, towards the Southeastern Coast of Eastern Samar.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Along the Southeastern Coast of Eastern Samar, between 5 to 7 PM local time tomorrow, Friday (Dec 28) – with High Strike Probability of 70-85%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern Visayas – beginning  Tonight.
>> Rest of Visayas and Bicol Region – beginning Tomorrow, Friday (Dec 28). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies slightly as it bears down the southeast coast of Eastern Samar…prepares to make landfall over the Southernmost part of Samar while moving Westward…about 55 km east-northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2PM Dec 28: 11.2°N 126.2°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over the Visayan Sea, near the west coast of Bantayan Island…becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it turns W to WSW-ward towards Central Panay…about 37 km north-northeast of Sagay City, Negros Occidental [2AM Dec 29: 11.2°N 123.5°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges over the north-central part of Sulu Sea, while passing along the Pamalican/Amanpulo Islands, and approaching Northern Palawan on a WSW track…about 150 km south-southeast of Coron, Palawan [2PM Dec 29: 10.8°N 120.7°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea while maintaining its strength and accelerating WSW-ward. About to exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 220 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 30: 10.3°N 116.8°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 720 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu December 27, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.5°N Lat 129.6°E Lon
Distance 1: 456 km ENE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte
Distance 2: 444 km NE of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 3: 471 km ESE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar
Distance 4: 522 km E of Maasin City, Southern Leyte
Distance 5: 1032 km ESE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.2°N 126.2°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.8°N 120.7°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.3°N 116.8°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

TCWS Graphics by: DOST-PAGASA (

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