TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (SAMUEL) UPDATE NO. 15 [FINAL]
Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 22 November 2018
|Current Status and Outlook||
Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) has slightly intensified as it crossed the West Philippine Sea. It is about to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight while its rainbands are affecting the Kalayaan Island Group (KIG).
With this development, this is the Final Update on this Tropical Cyclone.
24-hr Outlook: TD 33W (SAMUEL) will intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it continues to move west-southwest over the South China Sea at a forward speed of 21 km/hr.
The depression’s rainbands together with its Trough (or extension) and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring cloudy and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across the Kalayaan Group of Islands and Northern Luzon today through Thursday afternoon.
|Where is 33W (SAMUEL)?||As of 5:00 PM PhT today, November 22…0900 GMT. The center was located near the western part of West Philippine Sea (near 11.4°N Lat 115.2°E Lon), about 423 km West-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 670 km Southwest of Olongapo City, Zambales.|
|How strong is it?||
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
|Past Movement (06 hrs)||West-northwest @ 35 kph, towards the South China Sea|
|Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)||:: >> None.|
|What Philippine areas will be directly affected?||Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Kalayaan Island Group – Today.
Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
|Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+||:: None.|
|2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**||
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the center part of South China Sea … already outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…809 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Nov 23: 11.3°N 114.5°E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly intensifies (TS) while over the South China Sea near the Southeast shore of Vietnam…about 1138 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Nov 24: 10.4°N 108.4°E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
|Other Storm Info||> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]
> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 865 km (Medium)
> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
|Additional Information||Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu November 22, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.4°N Lat 115.2°E Lon
Distance 1: 684 km WSW of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 2: 693 km WSW of Trece Martires City, Cavite
Distance 3: 706 km WSW of Lipa City, Batangas
Distance 4: 710 km WSW of Bacoor City, Cavite
Distance 5: 726 km WSW of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.3°N 114.5°E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.4°N 108.4°E (TS)
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Issued by: Redmund G. Nacario for WeatherPhilippines