Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) Update No. 14


Issued at: 7:15 AM PhT (23:15 GMT) Thursday, 22 November 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 22 November 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) has maintained its intensity after it traversed over the landmass of Northern Palawan. Its rainbands are currently affecting Kalayaan Island Group (KIG). 

24-hr Outlook: TD 33W (SAMUEL) will intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it continues to move westward towards the West Philippine Sea at forward speed of 23 km/hr. It is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday early morning (Nov 23).

The depression’s rainbands together with its Trough (or extension) and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring cloudy and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across the rest of the Eastern Luzon, National Capital Region, Western Visayas, Bicol Region, and MiMaRoPa today through Thursday afternoon.

Where is 33W (SAMUEL)? As of 05:00 AM PhT today, November 22…2100 GMT. The center was located near the western coast of Northern Palawan (near 10.6°N Lat 118.9°E Lon), about 71 km north of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 395 km southwest of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 16 kph, towards Kalayaan Island Group – West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: >> None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>>  Palawan & Kalayaan Island Group – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 2 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the West Philippine Sea, already outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…491 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Nov 23: 11.3°N 114.5°E @ 65kph]Confidence LevelHIGH.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while over the West Philippine Sea, already outside the PAR…about 896 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Nov 24: 10.2°N 110.6°E @ 95kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 545 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 05:00 AM PhT Thu November 22, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.6°N Lat 118.9°E Lon
Distance 1: 405 km WNW of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 2: 422 km SW of Batangas City, Batangas
Distance 3: 438 km W of Himamaylan City, Negros Occidental
Distance 4: 445 km W of Bago City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 500 km SSW of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.3°N 114.5°E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.2°N 110.6°E (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

Source of TCWS Graphic: PAGASA-DOST

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