Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) Update No. 13


Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Thursday, 22 November 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 22 November 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) has accelerated and has maintained its intensity after it crossed the Northern parts of Sulu Sea. It is now moving towards Northern Palawan with its sheared inner rainbands affecting the said area and the West Philippine Sea (WPS).

24-hr Outlook: TD 33W (SAMUEL) will slow down as it moves westward towards the southeastern part of WPS at 21 km/hr. It is expected to cross the said area by tomorrow Thursday morning (Nov 22) at 8 AM. It will slightly intensify and accelerate as it reaches the western part of WPS by tomorrow Thursday evening at 8 PM.

The depression’s rainbands together with its Trough (or extension) and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring cloudy and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across the rest of the Eastern Luzon, National Capital Region, Western Visayas, Bicol Region, and MiMaRoPa today through Thursday morning.

Where is 33W (SAMUEL)? As of 11:00 PM PhT today, November 21…1500 GMT. The center was located over Northernmost part of Sulu Sea or near the shores of Northern Palawan (near 10.7°N Lat 119.8°E Lon), about 138 km northeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 302 km west of Iloilo City City, Iloilo.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-southwest @ 25 kph, towards Northern Palawan – West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: >> None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>>  MiMaRoPa – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 2 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.3

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY MORNING: Slightly intensify (TD) after it crossed the northern part of Palawan.. its location will be over the southeastern part of WPS…94 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Nov 22: 10.3°N 118.0°E @ 55kph]Confidence Level: HIGH.

THURSDAY EVENING: Strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS) and accelerates while crossing the western part of West Philippine sea…356 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Nov 22: 11.0°N 115.7°E @ 65kph]Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

FRIDAY MORNING: Slightly increase its strength (TS) while over the South China Sea…located outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…586 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Nov 23: 11.3°N 113.6°E @ 75kph]Confidence Level: LOW.

FRIDAY EVENING: Strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) over the South China Sea…about 762 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Nov 23: 11.0°N 111.9°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 725 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Wed November 21, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.7°N Lat 119.8°E Lon
Distance 1: 316 km W of Paasi  City, Iloilo
Distance 2: 335 km WSW of Roxas City, Capiz
Distance 3: 342 km WNW of Himamaylan City, Negros Occidental
Distance 4: 346 km W of Bacolod City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 452 km SSW of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.0°N 115.7°E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.0°N 111.9°E (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Redmund G. Nacario for WeatherPhilippines

Source of TCWS Graphic: PAGASA-DOST

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