Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) Update No. 12


Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 21 November 2018
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Thursday, 22 November 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) has maintained its strength after it crossed the Northern parts of Panay. Its sheared inner rainbands are affecting the regions of Western Visayas and MiMaRoPa.

24-hr Outlook: TD 33W (SAMUEL) will accelerate as it moves westward towards the northern part of Palawan at 25 km/hr. It is expected to cross the said area by tomorrow Thursday morning (Nov 22) at 2 AM. It will slightly intensify and accelerate as it reaches the West Philippine Sea by tomorrow Thursday afternoon at 2 PM.

The depression’s rainbands together with its Trough (or extension) and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring cloudy and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across the rest of the Visayas, Bicol Region, and MiMaRoPa today through Thursday morning.

Where is 33W (SAMUEL)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, November 21…0900 GMT. The center was located over Northernmost part of Sulu Sea near Cuyo Island (near 11.1°N Lat 121.1°E Lon), about 146 km southeast of Coron, Palawan or about 169 km west of Paasi  City, Iloilo.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Southwest @ 20 kph, towards Northern Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: >> None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>>  MiMaRoPa, and Western Visayas – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 2 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.3

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its strength (TD) while crossing the northern part of Palawan…90 km northeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Nov 22: 10.6°N 119.3°E @ 45kph]Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly intensifies (TD) and accelerates while crossing the western part of West Philippine sea…301 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Nov 22: 10.9°N 116.2°E @ 55kph]Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the South China sea outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…496 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Nov 23: 11.1°N 114.4°E @ 65kph]Confidence LevelLOW.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly intensifies (TS) over the South China Sea…about 666 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Nov 23: 11.1°N 112.8°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 620 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed November 21, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.1°N Lat 121.1°E Lon
Distance 1: 208 km SW of Romblon, Romblon
Distance 2: 213 km W of Talisay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 3: 216 km NW of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 4: 220 km W of Silay  City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 386 km S of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.9°N 116.2°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.1°N 112.8°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Redmund G. Nacario for WeatherPhilippines

Source of TCWS Graphic: PAGASA-DOST

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