Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) Update No. 11




Issued at: 1:30 PM PhT (13:30 GMT) Wednesday, 21 November 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (19:00 GMT) Wednesday, 21 November 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) has accelerated over the Visayan Sea while maintaining its strength after crossing Northern Panay, with much of its sheared rainbands located to the West of the main circulation..spreading across Visayas, Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa and the Sulu Sea.

24-hr Outlook: TD 33W (SAMUEL)TD 33W (SAMUEL) is expected to slow down as it tracks off towards the northern part of Sulu Sea heading Westward at 23 km/hr, approaching the Cabulauan-Calamian Island Group this afternoon (Nov 21) at 2 PM. It should slightly intensify into a minimal Tropical Storm as it reaches the West Philippine Sea by tomorrow early morning (Nov 22).

The depression’s rainbands together with its Trough (or extension) and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring cloudy and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across the rest of the Visayas, Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa and Western Mindanao today through Thursday morning.

Where is 33W (SAMUEL)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, November 21…0300 GMT. The center was located between Tangalan and Ibajay, Aklan (near 11.7°N Lat 122.0°E Lon), 82 km WNW of Roxas City, Capiz  or about 102 km SSW of Romblon, Romblon.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 49 kph, towards Daanbantayan, Cebu-Northern Panay
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: >> None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Northern Luzon, Eastern Luzon, Bicol, MiMaRoPa, Visayas and Western Mindanao – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 2 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.3

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY  EVENING: Maintains its TD strength well over the eastern part of the west Philippine sea…120 km northeast of El Nido, Palawan [8PM Nov 21: 11.6°N 120.1°E  @ 55kph]Confidence LevelHIGH.

THURSDAY MORNING: Slightly intensifies into a minimal Tropical Storm while crossing the eastern part of west Philippine sea…218 km west-northwest of El Nido, Palawan [8AM Nov 22: 11.6°N 117.5°E @ 75kph]Confidence LevelHIGH.

FRIDAY MORNING: Strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the west Philippine sea just about leaving the Philippine Area of ResponsibilityPAR line..284 km north-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Nov 23: 12.0°N 112.9°E @ 95kph]Confidence LevelLOW.

SATURDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS)…already outside the PAR line…about 470 km west-northwest of Pagasa Island, Kalayaan Island Group (KIG) [8AM Nov 24: 12.1°N 110.1°E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 950 km (Large)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed November 21, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.7°N Lat 122.0°E Lon
Distance 1: 82 km WNW of Roxas City, Capiz
Distance 2: 76 km ESE of Caluya, Semirara Island, Antique
Distance 3:102 km SSW of Romblon, Romblon
Distance 4: 128 km ENE of Agutaya Island, Palawan
Distance 5: 335 km SE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.6°N 117.5°E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 12.0°N 112.9°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 12.1°N 110.1°E (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Adonis S. Manzan for WeatherPhilippines

Source of TCWS Graphic: PAGASA-DOST

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