Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) Update No. 10


Issued at: 7:50 AM PhT (23:50 GMT) Wednesday, 21 November 2018
Next update: 11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Wednesday, 21 November 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) maintains its strength after crossing Northern Leyte, with much of its sheared rainbands located to the West of the main circulation..spreading across Visayas, Bicol Region and MiMaRoPa.

24-hr Outlook: TD 33W (SAMUEL) is expected to slow down as it moves westward at 19 km/hr, making landfall over Iloilo this afternoon (Nov 21) at 12 PM. It should stay at TD threshold as it reaches the northern part of the Sulu Sea, and approaching the Calamian Is. Group by early tomorrow morning (Nov 22).

The depression’s rainbands together with its Trough (or extension) and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring cloudy and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across the rest of the Visayas, Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa today through Thursday morning.

Where is 33W (SAMUEL)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, November 21…2100 GMT. The center was located near Daanbantayan, Northern Cebu just off the Visayan Sea (near 11.4°N Lat 124.7°E Lon), 186 km east of of Ajuy, Iloilo or at about 149 km northeast of Cebu City, Cebu.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 32 kph, towards Leyte-Cebu Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Along the Eastern Coast of Iloilo, between 11 AM to 1 PM local time – with High Strike Probability of 65-85%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Bicol, MiMaRoPa and Visayas – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 2 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY  AFTERNOON: Maintains its TD strength while crossing the eastern coast of Iloilo…186 km east of Ajuy, Iloilo [2PM Nov 21: 9.9°N 123.2°E  @ 45kph]Confidence LevelHIGH.

THURSDAY MORNING: Slightly intensifies over the northwesternmost part of Sulu Sea ….about 424 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Nov 22: 12.0°N 115.5°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the eastern part of west Philippine sea..about 284 km north-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Nov 22: 12.2°N 117.5°E @ 85kph]Confidence LevelLOW.

FRIDAY MORNING: Intensifies further while over the west part of West Philippine sea and is about to exit Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 414 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Nov 23: 10.8°N 115.1°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 690 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 05:00 AM PhT Wed November 21, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.4°N Lat 124.7°E Lon
Distance 1: 79 km E of Ormoc City, Leyte
Distance 2: 149 km NE of Cebu City, Cebu
Distance 3: 186 km E of Ajuy, Iloilo
Distance 4: 475 km SE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.6°N 120.4°E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 12.0°N 115.5°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 12.4°N 112.4°E (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Adonis S. Manzan for WeatherPhilippines

Source of TCWS Graphic: PAGASA-DOST

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