Tropical Storm YUTU (ROSITA) Final Update

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TROPICAL STORM YUTU (ROSITA) UPDATE NO. 15 [FINAL]

Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Wednesday, 31 October 2018
Current Status and Outlook

YUTU (ROSITA) has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) while moving northwestward, out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon.

*This is the Final Update on this Tropical Cyclone.

24-hr Outlook: TS YUTU (ROSITA) is forecast to move northwest to north-northwestward at a slower pace of 12 kph across the northern part of the South China Sea, and could re-intensify back to Severe Tropical Storm (STS) classification by tomorrow, Thursday afternoon (Nov 01).

Its eastern outermost rainbands (aka. Trough) will still affect Ilocos Region, however, improving weather conditions will be expected later tonight through tomorrow.

Where is YUTU (ROSITA)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 31…0900 GMT. The center was located over the northern part of the South China Sea (near 18.4°N 117.4°E)…about 329 km west-northwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur or 361 km west of  Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) North-Northwest @ 12 kph, across the Northern part of the South China Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> None. 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None
.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of up to 2 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Regains STS classification while moving NNW-ward across the northern part of the South China Sea…about 415 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2AM Nov 01: 19.2°N 116.8°E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to strengthen while over the Northern part of the South China Sea starts to turn northward slowly…about 317 km SE of Hong Kong, China [2PM Nov 01: 20.4°N 116.3°E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Slows down further as it recurves very slowly NNE-ward while losing strength over the South China Sea…about 268 km ESE of Hong Kong, China [2AM Nov 02: 21.1°N 116.3°E @ 95kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 320 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 795 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wednesday October 31, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.4°N Lat 117.4°E Lon
Distance 1: 372 km WNW of San Fernando City, La Union
Distance 2: 407 km NW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
Distance 3: 431 km NW of Urdaneta City, Pangasinan
Distance 4: 441 km WNW of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 5: 577 km NW of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.4°N 116.3°E (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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