Severe Tropical Storm YUTU (ROSITA) Update No. 14





Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 31 October 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 31 October 2018
Current Status and Outlook

YUTU (ROSITA) has been downgraded to a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it loses strength while moving slowly west-northwest over the West Philippine Sea, during the past 6 hours.  This storm is expected to leave the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later this afternoon or evening.

24-hr Outlook: STS YUTU (ROSITA) is predicted to move northwest to north-northwestward at 16 kph over the northern part of the South China Sea, and could re-intensify back to Typhoon (TY) by early tomorrow, Thursday morning (Nov 01).

Its eastern outer rainbands will still affect Ilocos Region, however, improving weather conditions will be expected once the system moves out of the PAR later today.

Where is YUTU (ROSITA)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 31…2100 GMT. The center was located over the western part of Luzon Sea (near 16.8°N 118.5°E)…about 271 km southwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte or 213 km west-northwest of  Dagupan City, Pangasinan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 11 kph, towards the West Philippine-South China Sea Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> None. 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of up to 2 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside of PAR as it regains Typhoon classification while moving NNW-ward across the northern part of the Sout China Sea…about 428 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2AM Nov 01: 19.3°N 116.7°E @ 120kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Rapidly weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves barely northward closer to the coast of Southern China…about 338 km WSW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [2AM Nov 02: 21.4°N 117.3°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 565 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 155 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wednesday October 31, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.8°N Lat 118.5°E Lon
Distance 1: 174 km WNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan
Distance 2: 219 km WNW of San Carlos City, Pangasinan
Distance 3: 239 km WNW of Urdaneta City, Pangasinan
Distance 4: 289 km NW of Angeles City, Pampanga
Distance 5: 369 km NW of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.3°N 116.7°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 21.4°N 117.3°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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