Typhoon YUTU (ROSITA) Update No. 13


Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 30 October 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 31 October 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tenacious Typhoon YUTU (ROSITA) has lost a significant amount of its energy after crossing the landmass of Luzon. This interaction with the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon has taken its toll with regard to its convective circulation, but torrential rains will continue, bringing more threat of flooding and landslides as the result of its passage.

24-hr Outlook: TY YUTU (ROSITA) will stay on course while traversing the West Philippine Sea. It is expected to stay within Typhoon strength, while steadily keeping a West-northwesterly track, and is expected to exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Wednesday evening (Oct. 31).

Improving weather conditions all throughout Luzon once the system moves out of the PAR on Wednesday evening (Oct 31).

Where is YUTU (ROSITA)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 30…0900 GMT. The center was located over Luzon Sea (near 16.8°N 120.5°E)…about 102 km WNW of San Fernando City, La Union or 114 km SW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center…Gustiness: 155 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Westward @ 18 kph, towards the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Northern & Western Luzon – Today. 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Coastal Areas of Western Luzon – Today.

+Waves of up to 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Well over the Luzon Sea, the typhoon gradually weakens as it maintains a WNW-ward track…about 173 km NW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Oct 30: 17.1°N 118.7°E @ 120kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Reintensifies slowly as it turns WNW to NW-ward across the West Philippine Sea, farther away from the landmass of Western Luzon…about 311 km W of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2PM Oct 31: 18.1°N 117.5°E @ 130kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), while steadily tracking northwestward across the open waters of the South China Sea, while keeping its strength…about 310 km SE of Hong Kong, SAR [2PM Nov 01: 20.5°N 116.3°E @ 130kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 385 km (Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 135 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tuesday October 30, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.0°N Lat 119.5°E Lon
Distance 1: 139 km NW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
Distance 2: 114 km SW of Vigan  City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 3: 206 km NW of Tarlac City, Tarlac
Distance 4: 211 km WSW of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 5: 317 km NNW of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 18.1°N 117.5°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.5°N 116.3°E (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Adonis S. Manzan for WeatherPhilippines

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