Typhoon YUTU (ROSITA) Update No. 12






Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday, 30 October 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 30 October 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon YUTU (ROSITA) has weakened further as it interacts with the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon while accelerating rapidly westward. The core is now passing over La Union, and will eventually emerge over the Luzon Sea in the next few hours.

24-hr Outlook: TY YUTU (ROSITA) is expected to briefly jog west-southwestward this afternoon and turn west-northwestward tonight, with a continued decrease in its strength. By tomorrow, Wednesday morning, the typhoon will turn further northwestward and will exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Wednesday evening.

Improving weather conditions all throughout Luzon will be expected once the system moves out of the PAR on Wednesday evening (Oct 31) through Thursday (Nov 01).

Where is YUTU (ROSITA)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 30…0300 GMT. The center was located along the Towns of Balaoan and Bacnotan, La Union (near 16.8°N 120.5°E), about 26 km northeast of San Fernando City, La Union or 45 km north-northwest of Baguio  City, Benguet.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center…Gustiness: 170 kph.

At 12:00 PM today, the WPF Automated Weather Station (AWS) [ID No. 980035] based in San Fernando City, La Union (LCP) reported wind gusts of 91 km/hr blowing from the NNW (338°) and a low barometric mean sea level pressure of 989.6 hPa.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Westward @ 32 kph, towards La Union and Luzon Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Currently Overland
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Northern Luzon – Today. 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Ilocos Region-CAR Area
 – Today.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Coastal Areas of Western Luzon – Today.

+Waves of up to 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY EVENING: Emerges over the Luzon Sea, as the typhoon weakens further while moving WSW-ward…about 80 km NW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8PM Oct 30: 16.6°N 119.4°E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Maintains intensity as it turns WNW-ward across Luzon Sea, farther away from Northern Luzon…about 253 km NW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Oct 31: 17.4°N 118.0°E @ 130kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves northwestward across the South China Sea, reintensifies anew…about 363 km WNW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8PM Oct 31: 18.5°N 117.1°E @ 145kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

THURSDAY MORNING: Continues to reintensify as it moves NNW-ward across the northern part of the South China Sea…about 349 km SE of Hong Kong, China [8AM Nov 01: 19.5°N 116.3°E @ 155kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 480 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 725 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 160 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tuesday October 30, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.8°N Lat 120.5°E Lon
Distance 1: 86 km NNE of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
Distance 2: 86 km S of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 3: 91 km NE of Alaminos City, Pangasinan
Distance 4: 102 km N of San Carlos City, Pangasinan
Distance 5: 255 km NNW of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 17.4°N 118.0°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.5°N 116.3°E (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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