Typhoon YUTU (ROSITA) Update No. 11






Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 30 October 2018
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday, 30 October 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon YUTU (ROSITA) has started traversing Northern Luzon on a westerly motion, as strong winds and heavy/extreme rains continues to impact Isabela, Southern Cagayan and Northern Aurora.  Its ragged “Eye” has made landfall over Eastern Isabela – somewhere along the Dinapigue-Palanan Border between 4:30-5:00 AM early this morning

24-hr Outlook: TY YUTU (ROSITA) is expected to continue moving westward at a speed of 17 kph, crossing Isabela, Ifugao, Benguet, southern tip of Ilocos Sur, and La Union this morning onwards, and will emerge along the coast of La Union later this afternoon. It will be over the West Philippine Sea tonight. This typhoon expected to weaken due to interaction with the mountainous regions of Northern Luzon.

This cyclone will continue to enhance the cool Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) across Northern and Western Luzon, where moderate to strong winds of 35-70 kph along with passing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms is expected. The seas will be rough and dangerous to all sea vessels.

Where is YUTU (ROSITA)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 30…2100 GMT. The eye was located along Eastern Isabela or over the Dinapigue-Palanan Border (near 16.8°N 122.3°E), about 24 km south-southwest of Palanan, Isabela, 56 km east-southeast of Cauayan City, Isabela, and 80 km east of Santiago  City, Isabela.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 155 kph near the center…Gustiness: 190 kph.

At 4:00 AM today, the WPF Automated Weather Station (AWS) [ID No. 980997] based in LGU Dinapigue, Isabela reported wind gusts of 161 km/hr blowing from the WSW (301°) and a low barometric mean sea level pressure of 953.2 hPa (@ 4:50am).

Past Movement (06 hrs) Westward @ 21 kph, towards Isabela, Ifugao, Benguet, Southern Tip of Ilocos Sur, and La Union.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  N/A. Currently Overland
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Northern Luzon – Today. 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Cagayan Valley-CAR Area
 – Today.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Coastal Areas of Northern & Western Luzon – Today.

+Waves of up to 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Just along the offshore areas of La Union, barely a Typhoon as it tracks westward after crossing Northern Luzon…about 21 km WNW of San Fernando City, La Union [2PM Oct 30: 16.7°N 120.2°E @ 120kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Regains intensity as it turns WNW-ward across Luzon Sea, farther away from Northern Luzon…about 157 km NW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Oct 31: 17.1°N 118.9°E @ 130kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Exiting the NW Border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on northwesterly track, as it continues to intensify anew…about 308 km west of Vigan  City, Ilocos Sur [2PM Oct 31: 17.9°N 117.5°E @ 140kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside of PAR, as it turns NNW across the South China Sea with increasing wind intensity…about 420 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2AM Nov 01: 19.0°N 116.7°E @ 155kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 545 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 160 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tuesday October 30, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.8°N Lat 122.3°E Lon
Distance 1: 114 km SE of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 2: 187 km ENE of Baguio City, Benguet
Distance 3: 207 km E of San Fernando City, La Union
Distance 4: 220 km ESE of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 5: 281 km NE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 17.1°N 118.9°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.0°N 116.7°E (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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