Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) Update No. 14


Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 14 September 2018
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Saturday, 14 September 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Extremely Catastrophic Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) continues to  weaken slowly as it maintain its fast, west-northwestward track in the general direction of Northern Luzon as it continues to endanger Cagayan Valley.

Important Note: This howler is similar in strength and track of Super Typhoons ZEB (ILIANG) of 1998 and HAIMA (LAWIN) of 2016.  Preparations in Northern and Central Luzon must be completed already as it is only less than 24 hours before it makes landfall.

24-hr Outlook: STY MANGKHUT (OMPONG) is expected to maintain its strength, and to continue accelerating west-northwestward with a forward speed of 28 km/hr, and shall make landfall along Northeastern Isabela and Eastern Cagayan early tomorrow early morning (Sept 15) at around 2 t0 3AM.  Some fluctuations in its wind speed is anticipated before it makes landfall, with a possible downgrading of this system into a Typhoon.

Where is MANGKHUT (OMPONG)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, September 14…0900 GMT. The eye was located over the Northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.1°N 124.9°E), about 266 km east of Palanan, Isabela or 317 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 250 kph near the center…Gustiness: 300 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 27 kph, towards Northern Isabela-Southern Cagayan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Along the Northeastern part of Isabela and Eastern part of Cagayan, between 2 to 3 AM local time on Saturday, Sept 15 – with High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>>Northern & Central Luzon – Today through Saturday (Sept 15)

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Northern & Central Luzon – Beginning this afternoon through Saturday (Sept 15).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas :: Whole Coastal Areas of Eastern, Northern and Central Luzon – Today through Saturday (Sept 15).
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING:  Maintains its strength before making its landfall over the Eastern Cagayan and Northeastern part of Isabela around 2 to 3AM of Saturday … about 64 km east-northeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan  [2AM Sept 15: 17.8N 122.3E  @ 250kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON:  Weakens into a Typhoon after traversing Northern Luzon… located over the Western Balintang Channel about 114 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM Sept 15: 18.6°N 119.6°E @ 180kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea as it exits the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)….re-intensifies slightly…about 410 km SE of Hong Kong, Hong Kong [2AM Sept 16: 19.7°N 116.8°E @ 190kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to intesify slowly while moving across the northwestern part of the South China Sea….about 140 km south-southwest of Hong Kong, Hong Kong [2PM Sept 16: 21.2°N 113.7°E @ 200kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 914 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1375 km (Large)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 245 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri September 14, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.1°N Lat 124.9°E Lon
Distance 1: 329 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 342 km E of Tuguegarao  City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 359 km E of Santiago  City, Isabela
Distance 4: 372 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 498 km NE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 18.6°N 119.6°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 21.2°N 113.7°E (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Redmund G. Nacario for WeatherPhilippines

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