Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) Update No. 13





Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday, 14 September 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 14 September 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Extremely Catastrophic Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) has maintained its strength as it speeds up, west-northwestward, in the general direction of Northern Luzon as it continues to endanger Cagayan Valley.

Important Note: This howler is similar in strength and track of Super Typhoons ZEB (ILIANG) of 1998 and HAIMA (LAWIN) of 2016.  Preparations in Northern and Central Luzon must be completed already as it is only less than 24 hours before it makes landfall.

24-hr Outlook: STY MANGKHUT (OMPONG) is expected to continue accelerating west-northwestward with a forward speed of 29 km/hr, and shall make landfall along Northeastern Isabela and Eastern Cagayan early tomorrow morning (Sept 15).  Some fluctuations in its wind speed is anticipated before it makes landfall, with a possible downgrading of this system into a Typhoo.

Where is MANGKHUT (OMPONG)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, September 14…0300 GMT. The eye was located over the Northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.3°N 126.2°E), about 412 km east of Palanan, Isabela or 438 km northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 260 kph near the center…Gustiness: 310 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 28 kph, towards Northern Isabela-Southern Cagayan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Along the Northeastern part of Isabela and Eastern part of Cagayan, between 2 to 3 AM local time on Saturday, Sept 15 – with High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>>Northern & Central Luzon – Today through Saturday (Sept 15)

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Northern & Central Luzon – Beginning this afternoon through Saturday (Sept 15).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas :: Whole Coastal Areas of Eastern, Northern and Central Luzon – Today through Saturday (Sept 15).
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EVENING:  Starts to lose strength as it bears down the coast of Cagayan Valley…about 170 km east of Palanan, Isabela [8PM Sept 14: 17.0°N 124.0°E  @ 250kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY MORNING:  In the vicinity of Abra-Iloxos Sur Area after traversing NE Isabela-Southern Cagayan-Southern Abra…no longer a Super Typhoon…about 36 km east-northeast of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8AM Sept 15: 17.7°N 120.7°E @ 190kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY EVENING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea as it exits the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)….re-intensifies slightly…about 292 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8PM Sept 15: 18.8°N 117.9°E @ 200kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SUNDAY MORNING: Continues to intesify slowly while moving across the northwestern part of the South China Sea….about 282 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [8AM Sept 16: 20.0°N 115.0°E @ 205kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 911 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,100 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 240 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri September 14, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.3°N Lat 126.2°E Lon
Distance 1: 375 km NE of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
Distance 2: 426 km NE of Daet, Camarines Norte
Distance 3: 513 km ENE of Daet, Camarines Norte
Distance 4: 442 km E of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 583 km ENE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 17.7°N 120.7°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class):  20.0°N 115.0°E (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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