Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) Update No. 12

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SUPER TYPHOON MANGKHUT (OMPONG) UPDATE NO. 12

Issued at: 6:45 AM PhT (22:45 GMT) Friday, 14 September 2018
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday, 14 September 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Extremely Catastrophic Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) inching closer to Luzon with its wide-swath of Tropical Storm and Typhoon Force Winds…endangering Cagayan Valley.

Important Note: This howler is similar in strength and track of Super Typhoons ZEB (ILIANG) of 1998 and HAIMA (LAWIN) of 2016.  Preparations in Northern and Central Luzon must be completed already as it is only less than 24 hours before it makes landfall.

24-hr Outlook: STY MANGKHUT (OMPONG) is expected to accelerate west-northwestward across the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea with a  forward speed of 28 km/hr, and shall make landfall along Northeastern Isabela and Southeastern Cagayan early tomorrow morning (Sept 15).  Some fluctuations in its wind speed is anticipated before it makes landfall.

Where is MANGKHUT (OMPONG)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 14…2100 GMT. The eye was located over the Northwestern Part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.5°N 127.5°E), about 413 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 508 km east-northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 260 kph near the center…Gustiness: 310 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 19 kph, towards Northern Isabela-Southern Cagayan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Along the Northeastern part of Isabela and Southeastern part of Cagayan, between 2 to 3 AM local time on Saturday, Sept 15 – with High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>>Northern & Central Luzon – Today through Saturday (Sept 15)


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Northern & Central Luzon – beginning this  afternoon through Saturday (Sept 15).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas :: Whole Coastal Areas of Eastern, Northern and Central Luzon – Today through Saturday (Sept 15).
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY AFTERNOON:  Gains a little bit of strength while passing well to the northeast of the Bicol Peninsula, while moving WNW-ward…about 280 km north-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM Sept 14: 16.3°N 125.3°E  @ 265kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING:  Makes landfall in the vicinity of Divilacan-Maconacon Area – between 2-3 AM as it slightly weakens, but remains a catastrophic Super Typhoon…starts to cross the southern part of Extreme Northern Luzon… about 45 km north of Palanan, Isabela [2AM Sept 15: 17.4°N 122.4°E @ 170kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges over the west coast of Ilocos Norte or over the West Philippine Sea. Weakens into a Typhoon after crossing the rugged terrain of Extreme Northern Luzon….about 126 km west of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM Sept 15: 18.2°N 119.4°E @ 205kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves faster WNW across the northern part of the South China Sea, weakens further….about 425 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [2AM Sept 16: 19.3°N 116.5°E @ 180kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 911 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,010 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 205 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri September 14, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.5°N Lat 127.5°E Lon
Distance 1: 394 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 482 km ENE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 3: 513 km ENE of Daet, Camarines Norte
Distance 4: 588 km E of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 699 km E of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 17.4°N 122.4°E (STY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class):  19.3°N 116.5°E (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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