Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) Update No. 11


Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Friday, 14 September 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 14 September 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Extremely Catastrophic Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) has maintained its strength and speed across the Central Philippine Sea in the general direction of Isabela-Cagayan Area. This howler is similar in strength to the likes of ZEB (ILIANG) of 1998, and HAIMA (LAWIN) of 2016. Areas in Northern and Central Luzon must take full precautionary measures as it is only less than two days before it makes landfall somewhere in Eastern Cagayan.

24-hr Outlook: STY MANGKHUT (OMPONG) is expected to resume moving west-northwestward across the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea with a  forward speed of 23 km/hr.  It is likely to continue losing strength on Friday evening (Sept 14) as it remains a STY.

This dangerous typhoon is expected to start affecting Northern and Central Luzon beginning late Friday (Sept 14).

Where is MANGKHUT (OMPONG)? As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, September 13…1500 GMT. The eye was located over the Middle Part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.0ºN 128.1º), about 448 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 551 km east-northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 250 kph near the center…Gustiness: 300 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 22 kph, towards the Northwestern Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Over the Northeastern part of Isabela and Southeastern part of Cagayan, between 2 to 3 AM local time on Saturday, Sept 15 – with High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>>Northern & Central Luzon – beginning tomorrow, Friday afternoon (Sept 14)

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Northern & Extreme Northern Luzon – beginning tomorrow, late Friday afternoon (Sept 14).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas :: Whole Coastal Areas of Eastern, Northern and Central Luzon – beginning tomorrow, Friday (Sept 14).
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EVENING:  Slightly weakens while turning WNW-ward across the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea., passing well to the northeast of Bicol Peninsula…about 170 km east of Palanan, Isabela [8PM Sept 14: 17.0ºN 124.0ºE  @ 240kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY EVENING:  Weakens into a Typhoon as it moves overland across Cagayan, Southern Apayao-Northern Kalinga Area, and Ilocos Norte… will be located over the western part of Balintang Channel as it exits the northwest boundary of the PAR … about 261 km west-northwest of Laoag  City, Ilocos Norte [8PM Sept 15: 18.8ºN 118.2ºE @ 170kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY EVENING: Already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves WNW across the northern part of the South China Sea, weakens further….about 276 km southwest of Hong Kong, Hong Kong [8PM Sept 16: 21.0ºN 111.9ºE @ 155kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 914 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1255 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 235 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Thu September 13, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.0ºN Lat 128.1ºE Lon
Distance 1: 436 km ENE of Bato, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 471 km NE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 3: 510 km NNE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 4: 515 km ENE of Tabaco City, Albay
Distance 5: 758 km E of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 17.0ºN 124.0ºE (STY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class):  18.8ºN 118.2ºE (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class):  21.0ºN 111.9ºE (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Redmund G. Nacario for WeatherPhilippines

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