Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) Update No. 09





Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday, 13 September 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 13 September 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Extremely Catastrophic Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) has weakened slightly as it moves a little faster across the Central Philippine Sea.  This howler is similar in strength to the likes of ZEB (ILIANG) of 1998, and HAIMA (LAWIN) of 2016.  Areas in Northern and Central Luzon must take full precautionary measures as it is only less than two days before it makes landfall somewhere in Eastern Cagayan.

24-hr Outlook: STY MANGKHUT (OMPONG)  is expected to start moving west-northwestward across the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea with a decreased forward speed of 20 km/hr.  It is likely to continue losing strength on Friday (Sept 14) as it remains a STY.

This dangerous typhoon is expected to start affecting Northern and Central Luzon beginning late Friday (Sept 14).

Where is MANGKHUT (OMPONG)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, September 13…0300 GMT. The eye was located over the Middle Part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 14.6°N 130.5°E), about 689 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 796 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 250 kph near the center…Gustiness: 300 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 25 kph, towards the Northwestern Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Over the Eastern part of Cagayan, between 4 to 5 AM local time on Saturday, Sept 15 – with High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>>Northern & Central Luzon – beginning tomorrow, Friday afternoon (Sept 14)

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Northern & Extreme Northern Luzon – beginning tomorrow, late Friday afternoon (Sept 14).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Whole Coastal Areas of Eastern, Northern and Central Luzon – beginning tomorrow, Friday (Sept 14).
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY MORNING:  Slightly weakens while turning WNW-ward across the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea., passing well to the northeast of Bicolandia…about 373 km northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes [8AM Sept 14: 16.1°N 126.9°E  @ 240kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY MORNING:  Weakens into a Typhoon as it traverses overland across Cagayan, Southern Apayao-Northern Kalinga Area, and Ilocos Norte…about 58 km east-southeast of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8AM Sept 15:  18.0°N 121.1°E @ 190kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY MORNING: Already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves WNW across the northern part of the South China Sea, weakens further….about 328 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [8AM Sept 16: 19.8°N 115.6°E @ 155kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 914 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 820 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 190 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu September 13, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 14.6ºN Lat 130.5ºE Lon
Distance 1: 676 km E of Bato, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 722 km E of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
Distance 3: 747 km ENE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 923 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 1016 km E of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 16.1ºN 126.9ºE (STY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 18.0ºN 121.1ºE (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.8ºN 115.6ºE (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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