Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) Update No. 06


Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 12 September 2018
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Thursday, 13 September 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Super Typhoon MANGKHUT has slightly accelerated and intensified over the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea as it entered the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at 3 0′ clock this afternoon.  It is now known locally as “OMPONG.”  This howler is now threatening Northern Luzon, with typhoon hazards over the area beginning Friday (Sept 14). 

24-hr Outlook: STY MANGKHUT (OMPONG) is forecast to move west-northwest towards the Central Philippine Sea with a forward speed of 23 km/hr.  It is then expected to slightly weaken as a Super Typhoon by Thursday afternoon (Sept 13) over the Central Philippine Sea.

This typhoon is expected to start affecting Extreme Northern and Northern Luzon beginning late Friday (Sept 14).  Still more than 2 days to go before the effects will commence, kindly take all necessary precautions.

Where is MANGKHUT? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, September 12…1100 GMT. The clear eye was located inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) or over the easternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 14.2°N 134.6°E), about 1,125 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 1,234 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 260 kph near the center…Gustiness: 310 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 19 kph, towards the Eastern Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Over the Northeast part of Cagayan, between 5 to 6 AM local time on Saturday, Sept 15 – with High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>>Northern Luzon including Batanes & Babuyan Islands – beginning Friday Afternoon (Sept 14)

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Northern & Extreme Northern Luzon – beginning Friday Evening (Sept 14).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Coastal Areas of Northern and Central Luzon – beginning Friday (Sept 14).
4-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY AFTERNOON:  Slightly weaken while moving WNW across the Central Philippine Sea…about 661 km northeast of Borongan  City, Eastern Samar [2PM Sept 13: 15.2°N 130.3°E  @ 250kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Still slightly weaken while over the north-west part of the Central Philippine Sea, passing well to the northeast of Bicol Region…about 341 km east of Palanan, Isabela [2PM Sept 14: 16.8°N 125.6°E  @ 240kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON:  Weaken into a Typhoon while passing over the Balintang Channel, and after hitting the northern parts of Luzon…about 110 km west-northwest of Laoag  City, Ilocos Norte [2PM Sept 15:  18.7°N 119.7°E @ 205kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Already outside of PAR, traversing the northern part of the South China Sea, approaching Southern China…about 200 km south of Hong Kong, China [2PM Sept 16: 20.6°N 114.0°@ 180kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 911 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 545 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 215 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed September 12, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 14.2ºN Lat 134.6ºE Lon
Distance 1: 1095 km ENE of Tacloban City, Leyte
Distance 2: 1109 km ENE of Calbayog City, Samar
Distance 3: 1129 km ENE of Baybay City, Leyte
Distance 4: 1138 km ENE of Ormoc City, Leyte
Distance 5: 1459 km E of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 15.2ºN 130.3ºE (STY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 16.8ºN 125.6ºE (STY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 18.7ºN 119.7ºE (TY)
96 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.6ºN 114.0ºE (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Redmund G. Nacario for WeatherPhilippines

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