Super Typhoon MANGKHUT Update No. 05





Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday, 12 September 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 12 September 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Super Typhoon MANGKHUT has slowed down as it approaches the easternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea…will enter the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon.  It will be known locally as “OMPONG.”  This howler is now threatening Northern Luzon, with typhoon hazards over the area beginning Friday (Sept 14). 

24-hr Outlook: STY MANGKHUT is forecast to turn west-northwest towards the Central Philippine Sea with a forward speed of 21 km/hr.  It is then expected to intensify further later tonight. By Thursday morning (Sept 13), MANGKHUT shall be over the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea.

This typhoon is expected to start affecting Extreme Northern and Northern Luzon beginning late Friday (Sept 14).  Still more than 2 days to go before the effects will commence, kindly take all necessary precautions.

Where is MANGKHUT? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, September 12…0300 GMT. The clear eye was located approaching the easternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.9°N 135.6°E), about 991 km west of Hagatna, Guam or 1,232 km east of Virac, Catanduanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 240 kph near the center…Gustiness: 295 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 18 kph, towards the Eastern Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Over the Northern Tip of Cagayan (vicinity of Santa Ana, Cagayan), betweem 5 to 6am local time on Saturday, Sept 15 – with High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>>Northern Luzon including Batanes & Babuyan Islands – beginning Friday Afternoon (Sept 14)

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Northern & Extreme Northern Luzon – beginning Friday Evening (Sept 14).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Coastal Areas of Northern and Central Luzon – beginning Friday (Sept 14).
4-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY MORNING: Moving WNW across the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea, still intensifying…about 823 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [8AM Sept 13: 15.0°N 131.7°E @ 250kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

FRIDAY MORNING: Starts to weaken while over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea, passing well to the northeast of Bicol Region…about 457 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [8AM Sept 14: 16.7°N 127.0°E @ 240kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY MORNING: No longer a Super Typhoon, as its core (eye & eyewall) is passing parallel to the coast of Northern Cagayan, after hitting the northern tip of the said province…about 56 km east-northeast of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [8AM Sept 15: 18.8°N 121.3°E @ 205kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY MORNING: Already outside of PAR, traversing the northern part of the South China Sea, approaching Southern China…about 249 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [8AM Sept 16: 20.9°N 115.9°E @ 180kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 918 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 635 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 175 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed September 12, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.9ºN Lat 135.6ºE Lon
Distance 1: 1199 km E of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 1286 km E of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 3: 1341 km E of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 4: 1477 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 1569 km E of Metro Manila, PH
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 15.0ºN 131.7ºE (STY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 16.7ºN 127.0ºE (STY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 18.8ºN 121.3ºE (TY)
96 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.9ºN 115.9ºE (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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