Super Typhoon MANGKHUT Update No. 04





Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Wednesday, 12 September 2018
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday, 12 September 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Super Typhoon MANGKHUT still gaining strength and is now considered “Extremely Catastrophic.”  Still tracking westward, closer to the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…expected to enter this afternoon. The threat to Northern Luzon this weekend, continues. 

24-hr Outlook: STY MANGKHUT is forecast to turn west-northwest towards the Central Philippine Sea at a decreased forward speed of 20 km/hr.  It is then expected to intensify further, reaching 10-min. sustained winds of 260 km/hr by Thursday afternoon (Sept 13).

This typhoon is still far to directly affect any part of the Philippines within the next 48 hours (2 days).

Where is MANGKHUT? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 12…2100 GMT. The clear eye was located over the sea west of the Northern Mariana Islands (near 13.9°N 136.6°E), about 883 km west of Hagatna, Guam or 1,340 km east of Virac, Catanduanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 240 kph near the center…Gustiness: 295 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 25 kph, towards the Eastern Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.
4-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving WNW across the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea, still intensifying…about 948 km east of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM Sept 13: 14.8°N 132.9°E @ 250kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to weaken after reaching its peak of 260 km/hr Thursday afternoon. Passing well to the northeast of Bicol Region…about 539 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM Sept 14: 16.4°N 128.3°E @ 250kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly, but still hanging on as a Super Typhoon, as it makes its final approach to Extreme Northern Luzon…about 106 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM Sept 15: 19.0°N 123.0°E @ 225kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: No longer a Super Typhoon as it moves across the northern part of the South China Sea (outside of PAR), approaching Hong Kong, China…about 365 km west-southwest of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [2AM Sept 16: 20.9°N 117.3°E @ 180kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 918 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 845 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 170 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed September 12, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.9ºN Lat 136.6ºE Lon
Distance 1: 1306 km E of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 1394 km E of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 3: 1450 km E of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 4: 1583 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 1676 km E of Metro Manila, PH
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.8ºN 132.9ºE (STY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 16.4ºN 128.3ºE (STY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.0ºN 123.0ºE (STY)
96 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.9ºN 117.3ºE (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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