Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Final Update





Issued at: 6:45 AM PhT (22:45 GMT) Monday, 23 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) currently exiting the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it maintains its strength but with its circulation shrinking.

This is the Final Update on this weak tropical cyclone.

24-hr Outlook: TD 13W (JOSIE) may become a Tropical Storm (TS) briefly before dissipating due to its interaction with the land mass of Eastern China. It will therefore maintain  its north-northwestward track at a faster forward speed of 29 km/hr, and shall make landfall over Eastern China as a dissipating system tomorrow, Tuesday early morning (July 24).  

The combined effects of TD 13W (JOSIE) & the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy or extreme scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms across the western sections of Luzon including Metro Manila, Bicol Region, CaLaBaRZon, MiMaRoPa, & Western Visayas today.

Where is 13W (JOSIE)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 23…2100 GMT. The center was located over the southern  part of the East China Sea (near 25.0°N 123.8°E), about 225 km east of Taipei, Taiwan or 535 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) North-Northwest @ 18 kph, towards Eastern China.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a TS as it moves along the western part of the East China Sea…about 288 km northeast of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM July 23: 27.1°N 123.3°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the onshore areas of Eastern China, making landfall…about 129 km south-southeast of Shanghai, China [2AM July 24: 30.2°N 122.1°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 150 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 280 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon July 23, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 25.0°N Lat 123.8°E Lon
Distance 1: 370 km NE of Taitung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 467 km ESE of Fuzhou, China
Distance 3: 517 km E of Quanzhou, China
Distance 4: 729 km SSE of Shanghai, China
Distance 5: 1194 km NNE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 30.2°N 122.1°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): None

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua  for WeatherPhilippines

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